- A major winter storm is intensifying in the Midwest and East.
- The heaviest additional snow will target the Great Lakes snowbelts, with over a foot possible for some.
- High winds capable of tree damage and power outages could blast much of the Midwest and East.
- Severe travel impact because of snow, wind and cold is expected.
- Lakshore flooding could be severe near Buffalo, New York, and coastal flooding is possible along the Northeast seaboard.
Winter Storm Elliott is intensifying into a likely bomb cyclone near the Great Lakes, bringing high winds, snow and blizzard conditions from the Northern Plains to western and upstate New York.
Elliott is also bringing significant Great Lakes lakeshore flooding, coastal flooding to parts of the Northeast seaboard, and dangerous travel impacts from a flash freeze to parts of the South and East.
(MORE: Brutally Cold Air Arrives With Elliott)
Here’s a look at where the storm is now and what’s to come.
Happening Now
Snow is falling right now from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians and also in parts of northern New England, where it will soon change to rain.
Rain is soaking much of the rest of the Northeast ahead of the fast-moving arctic cold front.
(LIVE UPDATES: Elliott’s Widespread Impacts)
Winds are still gusting over 30 or 40 mph, at times, in the Plains and Midwest behind the arctic cold front. That’s producing areas of blowing and drifting snow, making travel hazardous even in areas where falling snow has ended.
The strongest wind gusts are hammering parts of the Appalachians and New England. Gusts over 50 mph have been reported Friday morning in Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.
A major temperature drop is also spreading into the East.
Blizzard warnings remain in effect for parts of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes, as illustrated by the pink polygons in the map below. Those warnings include Buffalo, New York, Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Pierre, South Dakota.
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect for a much larger area that extends from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Among the cities included are Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Nashville.
Travel should be avoided in many of these areas since it could become difficult or impossible. That’s not just because of the snow, but also strong winds and extreme cold.
Forecast Timing
Friday
The storm will reach its peak intensity with high winds stretching from the Midwest and Great Lakes to the East as far south as Georgia and the Carolinas.
This will lead to blizzard conditions lingering in the Plains and upper Midwest, and intensifying in parts of Michigan, western and upstate New York.
Falling snow will be relateively confined to the Appalachians and Great Lakes.
Any rain or rain changing to snow in the Northeast will be followed by bitterly cold air that could result a flash freeze, making for icy conditions in spots.
Friday Forecast Precipitation, Winds
(Along with areas of precipitation, this forecast shows where areas of strong winds will be located, shown as arrows. )
Saturday
By Saturday, the storm will move away into eastern Canada, but strong winds will likely linger in much of the Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Northeast. Those winds blowing over the Great Lakes will produce bands of heavy lake-effect snow that could last into Christmas Day in the eastern Great Lakes.
Also, lingering areas of blowing and drifting snow are expected outside the lake snowbelts in the Midwest where snow fell the previous few days.
How Much More Snow?
Midwest
More than a foot of snow is likely in the western Great Lakes snowbelts, where winds blowing over the lakes will enhance snowfall downwind of lakes Superior and Michigan over the Upper Peninsula, western Lower Michigan and extreme northern Indiana.
Otherwise, additional snow totals generally less than 6 inches are possible in much of the rest of Michigan into northern Ohio.
Northeast
Modest snow totals generally less than 6 inches are expected in the high country of western and northern New England before precipitation changes to rain Friday.
The heaviest snow totals will be in the eastern Great Lakes snowbelts into the weekend, with one-foot-plus totals in the Lake Erie and Ontario snowbelts of western New York and upstate New York, including Buffalo and Watertown.
Some 6-inch-plus totals are also possible near Lake Erie in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, as well as in the Adirondacks.
Otherwise, generally light amounts of an inch or two are expected from the Appalachians into central New York behind the arctic front.
High Wind Threat
High winds will be the most widespread impact from Elliott.
The strongest winds from this storm are expected through Friday into early Saturday in the Midwest and along the East Coast from New England to Georgia Friday.
The National Weather Service has issued high wind warnings for parts of the East from upstate New York and New England, including the Boston metro area, to the Appalachians.
Wind Alerts
(Note: Other areas of high winds in the Great Lakes and Northern Plains are covered by either blizzard warnings or winter storm warnings from the National Weather Service.)
These winds will be capable of downing tree limbs and knocking out power, particularly where they combine with snow accumulations weighing down trees and power lines in the Midwest and East. Plan ahead now for the potential for power outages in cold weather if you live in these areas.
Even areas of lower snowfall totals may see dangerous reductions in visibility due to strong winds combined with snow and also drifting snow on roads, especially in outlying areas.
The winds will also lead to areas of coastal flooding.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected with Friday’s late morning or early afternoon high tide from the southern Delmarva Peninsula to parts of coastal New England, including Long Island and the Jersey Shore.
Significant lakeshore flooding is also expected along the southern shore of Lake Superior in Upper Michiganand the eastern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario in western and upstate New York into Saturday.
In Buffalolake levels could exceed 4 feet above flood stage, according to the NWS, a level that’s been reached only one other time since the mid-1970s. That could inundate flood-prone areas near the lake such as the Old First Ward in South Buffalo in a kind of sloshing back and forth of Lake Erie known as a seiche.
Other Threats
There are two other things we could see with this storm that could be dangerous for your drive.
First, as the arctic cold front sweeps through the Northeast, snow squalls could develop.
These are bursts of snow, but they’re brief, typically lasting less than an hour. The reason they’re dangerous is they can quickly lower visibility and coat roads in a thin film of snow, making them slippery.
Multi-vehicle accidents can and do occur within these snow squalls, particularly on major freeways with more traffic. Keep that in mind, even if your area of the Midwest and East does not have heavy accumulations of snow in the forecast. It could instead come down in these short-lived bursts.
Secondly, there’s the potential for a flash freeze. This occurs when rain soaks pavement, then is followed quickly by an arctic cold front that ushers in subfreezing air.
That fast-arriving cold air would then turn any lingering water on untreated roads into patches of ice, making travel slippery and dangerous, particularly on bridges and overpasses.
This is certainly possible in parts of the East ahead of the cold front Friday.
(MAPS: 10-Day U.S. Forecast Highs/Lows)
Bomb Cyclone Perspective
We mentioned earlier that this winter storm is expected to become a bomb cyclone.
As a rule of thumb, meteorologists refer to a strengthening low as “bombing out” or undergoing bombogenesis if its minimum surface pressure drops by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less, though that criteria also depends on a storm’s latitude.
Meteorologists frequently discuss pressure in terms of millibars, rather than inches of mercury.
The reason this all matters beyond just a geeky statistic is the lower the pressure in a storm, the more intense it is. And the greater difference in pressure over an area, the stronger the winds.
(MORE: What Is A Bomb Cyclone?)
Winter Storm Elliott has the potential to plunge to a pressure that could threaten December low-pressure records in the Great Lakesaccording to data compiled by NOAA Weather Prediction Center meteorologist David Roth.
For now, the latest ensemble model forecasts do not bring Elliott’s low to the level of what is considered the all-time low-pressure record – the so-called “Cleveland Superbomb” of late January 1978.
Nevertheless, this combination of wind, snow, cold, snow squalls and flash freezes will be a travel headache.
If you reside or have pre-Christmas travel plans in these areas, monitor the forecast closely and be prepared to make alternate travel arrangements. Check back with us at weather.com for important forecast updates.
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